So like, the July jobs report dropped last week and honestly? It’s way worse than anyone thought. Employers added only 73,000 positions—that’s under the 80K-100K needed just to keep up with population growth. But the real kicker’s the revisions: May and June got slashed down by 258,000 jobs combined. Like, May’s number went from 144K to 19K? That’s insane .

You can see the slowdown accelerate here:

What’s wild is unemployment still rose to 4.2% even with such weak hiring. Why? ‘Cause the labor force participation rate keeps dropping—down to like 62.4%. Fewer people even looking for work . And get this: long-term unemployment’s becoming a crisis. Nearly 25% of jobless folks been outta work over six months. That’s 1.82 million people. Amy Doerwang, a preschool teacher from Jersey? She’s been jobless since last September .

So Trump announced these huge tariffs back in April—10% baseline on all imports, plus like 41% on some countries. The uncertainty went nuts. Companies had no idea what stuff would cost next month. So consumers did what anyone would: panic-bought anything that might get pricier .

Motor vehicle sales jumped 5.3% in March alone. Electronics? Up 0.8%. People were rushing to buy cars, fridges, phones—anything tariff-targeted. Michael Madowitz at the Roosevelt Institute admitted he stocked up on car parts "to fix my really old car" .

But businesses? Total freeze. The Fed’s business outlook surveys tanked:

And here’s the irony: Trump said tariffs would boost U.S. manufacturing. Instead, companies halted investments ’cause policy changed weekly. One economist called it "utterly deluded" .

The vibe shift’s real. Glassdoor saw mentions of "uncertainty" surge 80% year-over-year. Only 45% of workers feel good about their company’s outlook now .

The University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index? It plunged to 50.9 post-tariff announcement. That’s lower than during the 2008 financial crisis. And Conference Board data shows 53% think the economy’s on the "wrong track" .

People are prepping for pain:

And get this—partisanship splits views hard. 82% of Dems fear recession vs. 44% of GOP. Republicans are twice as likely to hear "positive economic news" .

Beyond tariffs, two other policies are squeezing the labor pool dry. First: immigration crackdowns. The foreign-born workforce dropped by 1.7 million from March to July . Since immigrants drove ~75% of labor force growth since 2020, this matters big time .

Second: federal job cuts. Agencies shed 84,000 positions since January thanks to the "Department of Government Efficiency" (led by Elon Musk initially). July alone saw 22,000 gov jobs vanish .

Put together, these shrink the workforce while demand weakens. It’s why unemployment hasn’t spiked yet—fewer people are counted as job seekers. But it hides how fragile things are .

Companies aren’t just sitting around. They’re slamming the brakes on hiring. The national hiring rate’s at its lowest since 2014 (outside COVID). Quit rates? Also falling .

Laura Ullrich from Indeed put it bluntly: "Businesses hate uncertainty and that has made it for the business community to go forward with hiring" .

And prices? They’re rising already. Food and beverage firms warn they’ll pass tariff costs to consumers—80% of whom expect grocery hikes. Private label sales hit records in 2024 as shoppers trade down .

Electronics and car prices are climbing too. Trump temporarily exempted some electronics, but new semiconductor tariffs loom. Result? Firms like CoBank warn inflation could jump just as hiring stalls .

Here’s where it gets uneven. Health care and social assistance added 62K jobs in May—carrying the whole economy. Leisure/hospitality added 48K. Meanwhile, manufacturing? Retail? Tech? Flat or falling .

So where we headed? Economists see three risks:

The Fed’s stuck. Cut rates to help jobs? Risk inflation. Hold rates? Risk deeper hiring slump. As ING’s James Knightley said, revisions show "underlying fundamentals were perhaps nowhere near as strong as previously thought" .

Businesses want certainty. Workers want stability. Neither’s coming soon.

Q: How bad is long-term unemployment right now?
A: 1.82 million Americans have been jobless >6 months—25% of all unemployed. That’s up from 21.6% last year .

Q: Are tariffs already raising prices?
A: Yes on some goods. Autos and electronics saw immediate bumps from panic-buying. Broader inflation expected by fall .

Q: Why isn’t unemployment higher if job growth is weak?
A: Labor force participation keeps dropping (62.4% in July). Many are giving up job searches, especially immigrants .

Q: Which industries are still hiring?
A: Mostly healthcare (62K in May), social assistance, and leisure. Over 90% of June’s gains were in these sectors .

Q: Will consumer spending collapse?
A: CoBank warns spending drops typically start 3-5 months after confidence falls. Confidence crashed in April—so August/September could show pullbacks .