So yeah, Kamala Harris finally said she ain’t running for governor. That happened July 31st, right? After like months of everyone guessing what she’d do. Her team mentioned she thought hard about jumping in—real hard—but decided against it. She wants to stay involved nationally, apparently. Helping other Democrats win races, maybe starting some nonprofits or a PAC. But honestly, the big thing people noticed? She left the door wide open for another presidential try in 2028. Smart move, maybe. Running for governor would’ve tied her down in Sacramento debates when she clearly wants a bigger stage .

Her exit’s a huge deal. Like, donors froze everything waiting for her call. Campaigns couldn’t plan. Now? Everyone’s scrambling. Tony Thurmond—he’s the State Superintendent—told reporters it’s good she announced now ’cause labor unions vote on endorsements soon. Those matter here. A lot. But here’s the twist: Harris actually called Eleni Kounalakis before announcing. Yeah, the Lt. Gov. They’re friends, so maybe that means something later. Or not. Politics, you know? .

Katie Porter’s having a moment, no lie. Soon as Harris stepped aside, her team blasted out this poll showing her at 36% support. That’s way ahead of anyone else. Eleni Kounalakis? Antonio Villaraigosa? They’re down in like, the teens. And money? Porter raised over $3 million last quarter. That ain’t small. Shows people are buying what she’s selling: that anti-status-quo, take-on-corporate-power thing she does. Remember her whiteboard moments in Congress? Voters eat that up now, seems like .

But it’s not all smooth. Some Dem insiders whisper she’s too much of a lone wolf. Didn’t make many friends in D.C., they say. Still, that might help her. People want change, right? Her big test: can she turn that online buzz—all those small donors—into real votes statewide? She lost that Senate primary last year, after all. Gotta prove she’s not just popular on Twitter .

Table: California Governor Race Polling & Fundraising (Post-Harris Exit)

Eleni Kounalakis should be doing better. She’s Lt. Gov., has that $9 million saved up. Even got Nancy Pelosi to kinda endorse her—like, off-the-cuff at some event. But polls? She’s stuck. Like, 12% or something. Ouch. Her team says it’s early, points to her cash pile and Harris’s phone call like it’s a golden ticket. Maybe. But let’s be real: $9 million don’t matter if people ain’t feeling your message .

She’s playing the experience card. Ambassador under Obama, two terms as Newsom’s #2. Safe choice, right? Problem is, “safe” feels like “more of the same” to a lot of folks. Housing costs are crazy. Homelessness is everywhere. She talks about “steady leadership,” but does that excite anyone? Meanwhile, Porter’s out there with the whiteboard, calling out big banks. See the difference? Kounalakis needs labor unions badly. If they back her, maybe she turns it around. If not… .

Republicans? They wanted Harris in the race. Seriously! Steve Hilton—yeah, the Fox guy—said she’d be “extremely beatable.” Easy target. Now? They’re kinda bummed. Their two main guys are Chad Bianco, a sheriff from Riverside, and Hilton himself. Bianco’s all “law and order,” Hilton’s the Trumpy insider. But California’s still blue. Harris won it by 20 points last year. Oof .

Their plan now? Hope the Dems tear each other apart. Bianco called it a “Democrat bloodbath.” Messy primary, lots of attacks—then maybe a weakened nominee faces him. Plus, they’ll hammer the usual stuff: cost of living, crime, schools. Will it work? History says no. But if turnout’s low, or if the Dems pick someone too far left? Hey, stranger things happened .

Don’t sleep on Xavier Becerra. Seriously. He’s not polling great yet—around 5%—but look at his resume: California AG, then Biden’s Health Secretary during COVID. Handled big stuff: abortion rights, vaccine rollouts, drug pricing fights. That matters. He’s got deep roots here, too. Latino voters? Could be his base. Problem is, he’s quiet. Not flashy like Porter or connected like Kounalakis .

His path? Wait for Porter and Kounalakis to fight. Position himself as the “grown-up” alternative. Biden admin ties might help with moderates and donors who want stability. Plus, if healthcare stays a top issue—Medi-Cal, hospital closures—he’s the expert. But he needs money fast. And a moment. Maybe a debate where he schools everyone on policy? We’ll see .

Fall 2025? That’s when things get real. Big labor unions—SEIU, teachers, nurses—they’ll pick who to back. These endorsements? Gold. They bring money, boots on the ground, votes. Tony Thurmond (another candidate, but longshot) said it’s good Harris stepped aside now so unions can “vet the candidates.” Thing is, it’s hard for anyone to lock it down early. Votes are split .

Watch Kounalakis here. She’s worked with these groups for years. Porter? Less so. She’s got that activist energy but sometimes ruffles union feathers. If SEIU or the teachers go big for Eleni, that’s trouble for Porter. But if they stay neutral or split? Advantage Porter. Also, watch Pelosi. That casual nod to Kounalakis—was that a trial balloon? Does she go all-in? Huge if she does .

Timeline’s clearer now. Harris is out, so here’s how it rolls:

Key thing: California’s “jungle primary” system. All candidates run together, top two face off in November. So even if Porter wins 30% in June, if a Republican sneaks into second? Unlikely but possible. More probable is Porter vs. Kounalakis or Porter vs. Becerra in the final .

Rick Caruso. Remember him? Mall billionaire, ran for L.A. mayor, lost. Now he’s sniffing around. Republican-turned-Democrat, moderate vibe. If he jumps in with his own money? Game-changer. Could split the business vote, hurt Kounalakis. Or maybe run as independent? Unclear, but his team’s being coy .

Other wild cards: Gavin Newsom. He’s termed out but still popular. Who’s he backing? Silence so far. Could tilt the scales. Also, Matt Mahan—San Jose’s mayor. Moderate, talks tough on homelessness. Said he’s focused on his job now… but didn’t say “never.” If Porter looks too strong, maybe moderates beg him to run .

Why did Kamala Harris quit the governor’s race?
She wanted to stay in national politics, possibly prep for a 2028 presidential run. Being governor would’ve kept her focused only on California issues, which didn’t fit her plans .

Can Katie Porter actually win statewide in California?
She’s leading polls (36%) and crushed Q2 fundraising. But she lost her 2024 Senate bid. Needs to prove her grassroots style works beyond just Orange County and the internet .

What happened to Eleni Kounalakis’s early lead?
She had money ($9M) and Pelosi’s nod, but polls stalled near 12%. Struggles to stand out against Porter’s energy and Villaraigosa’s name recognition .

Do Republicans have any chance in this election?
Unlikely. California leans heavily Democratic. But Sheriff Chad Bianco hopes for a “Democrat bloodbath” in the primary—if Dems get too divided, maybe GOP gains traction .

Who’s the strongest Democrat if Porter stumbles?
Xavier Becerra. Former AG and Biden’s HHS Secretary. Low polling now (~5%), but deep experience and could appeal to moderates if Porter/Kounalakis fight gets ugly .